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Jounral Entries Fall 2012


(will add new information  )

update: 1 st Nov. 2013. The comet is running 3.3 mag below the original estimates.

Click for Raw photo by C. Schur

astrobob.areavoices.com : Astro Bob, Celestial happenings you can see from your own backyard. Green Pale green. Iron (II). Wavelength (nm) 491-570.

 

update 11 Sept. 2013: updated photo of ISON 15 Oct. 2013.


By Deborah Byrd in
Blogs | Space on Aug 14, 2013
Comet ISON emerges from sun’s glare not as bright as hoped

September and October 2013. Comet ISON will brighten as the months pass. In September and October, amateur astronomers will surely be trying to pick it up. The comet will be sweeping in front of the constellation Leo then. It’ll pass first near Leo’s brightest star Regulus, then near the planet Mars.

In November, ISON will pass very close to the bright star Spica and the planet Saturn, both in the constellation Virgo. These bright stars might help you find the comet. There has been some mention that Comet ISON could become a daylight object, briefly. Remember, though, at perihelion, Comet ISON will appear close to the sun on the sky’s dome (only 4.4° north of the sun on November 28). Although the comet will be bright, it’s likely that only experts who know how to look near the sun, while blocking the sun’s glare, will see it. November finder charts for Comet ISON here.

New Comet: C/2012 S1 (ISON)

 

ANTICIPATION AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLE ONCE IN A CIVILIZATION COMET PASSAGE

 

** WARNING ** TO ALL WHOME READ THIS PAGE AT THIS TIME:
 
The initial state available for this object was a Keplerian two-body
orbital element set, not osculating elements. This means the orbit is probably very poorly determined. Predictions for times many months or years from the epoch may not be suitable for high-accuracy applications or expectations.

 

In common terminology: No one yet knows its solar system passage coordinates – these are all preliminary (based upon a pre-comet tracking in December 2011, declared a comet 21 Sept. 2012, because a corona was measured).

 

(Bookoflife.org © 28 September 2012, Michael J. McDonald): an estimation of less than 1533.333 ... diameters of the Earth (e.g. 36,800,000 million miles at the closest approach .7880434783), this comet-passage is considered EXTREMELY close and it is possible, yet true earth trajectory is still unknown, the magnitude may reach the negative range (November 2013); thus this comet may shine as bright as Sirius or possibly even as ‘bright as the Full Moon.’ [1]  There never has been a comet that shown brighter than the full moon in historical evidence. It was discovered coming from the northern-western sector of the constellation of Cancer.  

 

Estimated perihelion: ω 28 November 2013 ≈ 36,800,000 million miles.

Estimated ap. brightest magnitude  29 Nov. 2013: λ 247° 33 44.309

(A. Tindel's small estimations, based on NASA horizon, original modeling)

Astrological to point of brightness (29 Nov. 2013): ~ -11.0 mag. at 07° Sagittarius 33′ 44.309″

Projected position 2013 at brightest estimate

Photo of comet-position 29th November 2013, a bright yellow-Hydrogen signature, star Psi Ophiuchii (The Serpent Bearer) & potential occultation by Comet 2012 SI

Origin: Oort Cloud.

Discovered: 21 September 2012: International Scientific Optical Network (ISON), near Kislovodsk, Russia.

Gravity mysteries: comets travel vast distances: currently C/2012 SI is some 675,307,600 miles from our Earth as I write this and in November 2013 will come as close as 36,800,000 miles (.4 AU).

Gravitational conflictions to Earth: 39.5% barry-center interruptions—dependant upon displacement.

Extreme Estimated closet approach to Sun: 1,092,000 million miles (.012 au).

 

small PERTURBATIONS: no major planets in path to influence its current trajectory – but three large ASTEROIDS can cause GRAVITATIONAL shifting of the trajectory: cERES , pALLAS, vESTA. {source: SB405-CPV-2}

Interfering body: MOON (Req= 1737.400) km         {source: DE405}

 

Position plotted for late August 2012: n/w cancri: On August 25th 2012, its tropical position was α 116° or 26° of  Cancer (~150° to the galactic center). The tropical position for 1st of August 2012 is λ 116° 47′ 37.231″. The earliest records of the name Cancer are found in Omen texts of Neo-Babylonia, copies from much earlier works: Allah ( Cancer) is the name used back then, adopted later in the seventh century by Prophet Muhammad, progenitor of the monotheistic religion Islam ( note Moslemic crescent Moon, the symbol of Cancer in Sumerian texts, the Moon its ruler and Jupiter its dignitary). This, the northern western section of the constellation of Cancer, discovery happens in late tropical cancer but it appears it moves rapidly (currently 675,307,600 miles from our Earth as I write this) and thus it will move into the constellation of tropical Leo – denoted by the Abassīd Empire astronomers (10th c.)  as the home of Christianity.

 

Chinese ancient astronomy/astrology (observations B.C., recorded circa 150 A.D.): the near center of Cancer (modern day M44) are where souls come to and fro to Earth. Biblical ‘conceptual - comparison: Jacobs Ladder. Praesepe (M44) in the ancient Chinese sources intend ‘piled-up-corpses’ of greedy individuals or government officials who force repressive and suppressive controls on the greater populace. The ancient Chinese observations intend when Preasepe is prominent, mass graves are filled with government officials who misused the people for their avarice ways.

 

C/2012 S1 (ISON) Equatorial J2000.0:

 

RA or Longitude   DEC (δ) or Latitude (β) elliptical lat; (λ) elliptical long.  PA (East of North)

α 120.05458333    

δ 28.17250000       0.000000    

RA 8h00m13.10000s   

δ +28d10m21.0000s

 

Ecliptic J2000.0

 

λ 116.43938933     

J2000 λ:  116° 26′ 21.802″

 

β 7.45005232        

PA 348.409663

 

f(x) 70y = 1° precession  [.1714286667 | 00° 10′ 17.143″]; x=12y. y= mean tropical-solar year.

 

Epoch (day, month, year) 1.1.2012: 116.610818 |  116° 36′ 38.945″

Epoch (day, month, year) 1.8.2012: { .1714286667 + .0114285778 + 116.610818 } 116.7936752: 116° 47′ 37.231 [2]

 

 

Amateur astronomers visualness: binocular visibility by late summer 2013.

 

Cbet nr. 3238, issued on 2012, September 24, announces the discovery of a new comet (discovery magnitude 18.8) by Vitali Nevski (Vitebsk, Belarus) and Artyom Novichonok (Kondopoga, Russia) on CCD images obtained on Sept. 21.06 UT with a 0.4-m f/3 Santel reflector of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) near Kislovodsk, Russia. The new comet has been designated C/2012 S1 (ISON).

Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) will get to within 0.012AU of the Sun (extremely close) at the end of November 2013 and then to ~0.4AU from Earth at the beginning of January 2014! According to its orbit, this comet might become a naked-eye object in the period November 2013 - January 2014. And it might reach a negative magnitude at the end of November 2013.f
[3]

 

Ephemeris:
    C/2012 S1 (ISON)
Date    TT    R. A. (2000) Decl.     Delta      r     Elong.  Phase   m1    m2
2012 08 25    08 00 13.1 +28 10 21   7.3403  6.5526    36.3     5.2  18.5
...
2012 09 09    08 07 34.4 +27 57 06   7.0264  6.4094    48.9     6.8  18.3
...
2012 09 17    08 11 04.8 +27 52 11   6.8423  6.3324    55.8     7.5  18.2
...
2012 09 23    08 13 27.9 +27 49 41   6.6975  6.2743    61.1     8.0  18.1
2012 09 24    08 13 50.4 +27 49 23   6.6729  6.2646    62.0     8.1  18.1
2012 09 25    08 14 12.4 +27 49 07   6.6482  6.2548    62.9     8.2  18.1
...
2012 10 01    08 16 15.6 +27 48 12   6.4972  6.1964    68.2     8.6  18.0
...
2012 10 09    08 18 32.9 +27 49 04   6.2901  6.1180    75.6     9.1  17.9
...
2012 10 24    08 21 10.2 +27 58 07   5.8902  5.9697    89.8     9.6  17.6 [4]

 

 

Other comets on our Earth schedule is Comet Pan-STARRS (C/2011 L4) which is set to stun in March 2013.

 

 


 


[1] New Comet Might Blaze Brighter Than The Full Moon, Peter Grego, 25 Sept. 2012, 'Astronomy Now'

[2] precession, I based it on a mere whole number of 70y=1° ( I use this formula for only 150y periods ±J2000, these become dynamic outside of these boundaries. 

[3] Ernesto Guido, Giovanni Sostero & Nick Howes, Remanzacco Observatory, Mon, 24 Sep 2012 18:07 CDT

[4] Gareth V. Williams, Minor Planet Electronic Circulars, M.P.E.C. 2012-S63 ( Harvard, Massachusetts: Issued 2012 Sept. 24, 18:40 UT), division of Minor Planet Center, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A 

Alois Tindel: Astrodienst Founder: included is his own ‘small corrections.’

 

attach a geocentric ephemeris of comet C/2012 S1,  
generated with the JPL Horizons system  
and edited manually.
 
For more convenient access, I copy it also into three consecutive postings.
 
date                    long                    lat            dist.AU                            magn.
comes from the sign of cancer, lat. around 10°N
10-day steps      Leo
2012-Oct-01      120.1899972      7.8442823      6.49659476321563      17.98
2012-Oct-11      120.7879792      8.0075214      6.23679677057622      17.81
2012-Oct-21      121.1598201      8.1934194      5.97020138412902      17.64
2012-Oct-31      121.2656618      8.3987204      5.70147912866077      17.46
2012-Nov-10      121.0675503      8.6188429      5.43547377546975      17.27
2012-Nov-20      120.5272550      8.8465327      5.17756341292938      17.08
           Cancer
2012-Nov-30      119.6176374      9.0707412      4.93359705697473      16.89
2012-Dec-10      118.3260037      9.2778780      4.70917651761407      16.70
2012-Dec-20      116.6596030      9.4506269      4.50994372089563      16.52
2012-Dec-30      114.6595143      9.5699634      4.34082278216862      16.34
2013-Jan-09      112.3976332      9.6187855      4.20535289053413      16.17
2013-Jan-19      109.9785737      9.5834420      4.10573796025556      16.02
2013-Jan-29      107.5328257      9.4587946      4.04187844718928      15.88
2013-Feb-08      105.1923094      9.2492528      4.01156203349618      15.76
2013-Feb-18      103.0812177      8.9667806      4.01086920135308      15.65
2013-Feb-28      101.2980451      8.6301042      4.03405566995627      15.55
2013-Mar-10      99.9045653      8.2591269      4.07475481803811      15.45
2013-Mar-20      98.9348120      7.8720825      4.12632066374298      15.35
2013-Mar-30      98.3928382      7.4847645      4.18205286160146      15.25
2013-Apr-09      98.2630488      7.1079453      4.23611823546863      15.15
2013-Apr-19      98.5215500      6.7489690      4.28318121778038      15.03
2013-Apr-29      99.1342450      6.4124244      4.31862888754788      14.91
2013-May-09      100.0680990      6.0996663      4.33891713142582      14.76
2013-May-19      101.2928858      5.8111342      4.34090883891322      14.60
2013-May-29      102.7771948      5.5460652      4.32226613420304      14.42
2013-Jun-08      104.4975039      5.3024293      4.28140185936458      14.22
2013-Jun-18      106.4340443      5.0785852      4.21693220434208      14.00
2013-Jun-28      108.5690119      4.8721275      4.12820371471355      13.75
2013-Jul-08      110.8939220      4.6802576      4.01496283766891      13.48
2013-Jul-18      113.4029789      4.5006335      3.87709106543919      13.17
2013-Jul-28      116.0962816      4.3298369      3.71512485985564      12.83
1-day-steps
2013-Aug-07      118.9858608      4.1642632      3.52974078412462      12.45
2013-Aug-08      119.2862133      4.1478546      3.50994206906436      12.41
2013-Aug-09      119.5887104      4.1314550      3.48991848572133      12.37
2013-Aug-10      119.8933786      4.1150590      3.46967137297346      12.33
           Leo
2013-Aug-11      120.2002478      4.0986609      3.44920215549559      12.29
2013-Aug-12      120.5093508      4.0822545      3.42851233977711      12.24
2013-Aug-13      120.8207233      4.0658336      3.40760350721483      12.20
2013-Aug-14      121.1344026      4.0493916      3.38647730383691      12.16
2013-Aug-15      121.4504271      4.0329215      3.36513542591418      12.11
2013-Aug-16      121.7688357      4.0164162      3.34357960054639      12.07
2013-Aug-17      122.0896676      3.9998684      3.32181156072276      12.02
2013-Aug-18      122.4129634      3.9832706      3.29983301580084      11.98
2013-Aug-19      122.7387668      3.9666156      3.27764562086988      11.93
2013-Aug-20      123.0671269      3.9498958      3.25525095118104      11.89
2013-Aug-21      123.3980997      3.9331042      3.23265048888934      11.84
2013-Aug-22      123.7317482      3.9162336      3.20984562708302      11.79
2013-Aug-23      124.0681404      3.8992770      3.18683769077089      11.74
2013-Aug-24      124.4073467      3.8822273      3.16362796892631      11.70
2013-Aug-25      124.7494374      3.8650773      3.14021774905301      11.65
2013-Aug-26      125.0944819      3.8478195      3.11660834702927      11.60
2013-Aug-27      125.4425490      3.8304462      3.09280112858483      11.55
2013-Aug-28      125.7937076      3.8129492      3.06879752230296      11.49
2013-Aug-29      126.1480284      3.7953200      3.04459902616590      11.44
2013-Aug-30      126.5055841      3.7775495      3.02020721030670      11.39
2013-Aug-31      126.8664501      3.7596281      2.99562371835133      11.34
2013-Sep-01      127.2307057      3.7415459      2.97085026909035      11.28
2013-Sep-02      127.5984343      3.7232923      2.94588865952105      11.23
2013-Sep-03      127.9697240      3.7048560      2.92074076964880      11.17
2013-Sep-04      128.3446685      3.6862253      2.89540856882721      11.12
2013-Sep-05      128.7233676      3.6673876      2.86989412284378      11.06
2013-Sep-06      129.1059282      3.6483297      2.84419960047636      11.00
2013-Sep-07      129.4924648      3.6290374      2.81832727796862      10.94
2013-Sep-08      129.8830992      3.6094960      2.79227953993589      10.88
2013-Sep-09      130.2779605      3.5896897      2.76605887564961      10.82
2013-Sep-10      130.6771851      3.5696017      2.73966787035282      10.76
2013-Sep-11      131.0809155      3.5492146      2.71310919196950      10.70
2013-Sep-12      131.4893010      3.5285101      2.68638557405667      10.64
2013-Sep-13      131.9024980      3.5074689      2.65949979604036      10.58
2013-Sep-14      132.3206712      3.4860711      2.63245466187864      10.51
2013-Sep-15      132.7439953      3.4642961      2.60525297861713      10.45
2013-Sep-16      133.1726580      3.4421222      2.57789753705634      10.38
2013-Sep-17      133.6068612      3.4195275      2.55039109771090      10.31
2013-Sep-18      134.0468221      3.3964890      2.52273638573512      10.25
2013-Sep-19      134.4927735      3.3729830      2.49493609766856      10.18
2013-Sep-20      134.9449614      3.3489850      2.46699292046191      10.11
2013-Sep-21      135.4036439      3.3244691      2.43890956008487      10.04
2013-Sep-22      135.8690896      3.2994085      2.41068877465969      9.96
2013-Sep-23      136.3415780      3.2737746      2.38233340668972      9.89
2013-Sep-24      136.8214006      3.2475375      2.35384641050892      9.82
2013-Sep-25      137.3088630      3.2206650      2.32523087349536      9.74
2013-Sep-26      137.8042872      3.1931234      2.29649003169689      9.66
2013-Sep-27      138.3080134      3.1648766      2.26762728172644      9.59
2013-Sep-28      138.8204023      3.1358863      2.23864619113904      9.51
2013-Sep-29      139.3418367      3.1061117      2.20955050935446      9.43
2013-Sep-30      139.8727239      3.0755094      2.18034418089031      9.34
2013-Oct-01      140.4134971      3.0440330      2.15103136232660      9.26
2013-Oct-02      140.9646182      3.0116333      2.12161644328756      9.17
2013-Oct-03      141.5265800      2.9782577      2.09210406899070      9.09
2013-Oct-04      142.0999092      2.9438501      2.06249916225719      9.00
2013-Oct-05      142.6851687      2.9083507      2.03280694742559      8.

 

part 2
2013-Oct-06      143.2829598      2.8716955      2.00303297541005      8.82
2013-Oct-07      143.8939251      2.8338160      1.97318314496635      8.73
2013-Oct-08      144.5187504      2.7946392      1.94326371784224      8.63
2013-Oct-09      145.1581680      2.7540870      1.91328132873560      8.54
2013-Oct-10      145.8129607      2.7120763      1.88324299293957      8.44
2013-Oct-11      146.4839674      2.6685183      1.85315611558344      8.34
2013-Oct-12      147.1720888      2.6233190      1.82302850636591      8.24
2013-Oct-13      147.8782945      2.5763778      1.79286840281228      8.13
2013-Oct-14      148.6036290      2.5275880      1.76268450412184      8.03
2013-Oct-15      149.3492181      2.4768358      1.73248601693755      7.92
           Virgo
2013-Oct-16      150.1162741      2.4240003      1.70228271419983      7.81
2013-Oct-17      150.9061009      2.3689521      1.67208500812342      7.69
2013-Oct-18      151.7200995      2.3115534      1.64190403799156      7.58
2013-Oct-19      152.5597734      2.2516570      1.61175177272320      7.46
2013-Oct-20      153.4267363      2.1891055      1.58164112731692      7.34
2013-Oct-21      154.3227204      2.1237306      1.55158609180489      7.22
2013-Oct-22      155.2495869      2.0553523      1.52160187162733      7.09
2013-Oct-23      156.2093373      1.9837782      1.49170503933427      6.96
2013-Oct-24      157.2041261      1.9088029      1.46191369887585      6.83
2013-Oct-25      158.2362731      1.8302076      1.43224766501633      6.69
2013-Oct-26      159.3082771      1.7477590      1.40272866132795      6.55
2013-Oct-27      160.4228285      1.6612099      1.37338054075261      6.41
2013-Oct-28      161.5828229      1.5702984      1.34422953295581      6.26
2013-Oct-29      162.7913742      1.4747488      1.31530452275673      6.11
2013-Oct-30      164.0518269      1.3742718      1.28663736383912      5.96
2013-Oct-31      165.3677677      1.2685661      1.25826323167019      5.80
2013-Nov-01      166.7430351      1.1573201      1.23022101893009      5.64
2013-Nov-02      168.1817258      1.0402155      1.20255377563464      5.47
2013-Nov-03      169.6881968      0.9169313      1.17530919452467      5.30
2013-Nov-04      171.2670622      0.7871499      1.14854014054602      5.12
2013-Nov-05      172.9231820      0.6505655      1.12230522205664      4.94
2013-Nov-06      174.6616422      0.5068948      1.09666940139159      4.75
2013-Nov-07      176.4877239      0.3558911      1.07170464337397      4.55
2013-Nov-08      178.4068571      0.1973618      1.04749060086395      4.35
           Libra
2013-Nov-09      180.4245554      0.0311906      1.02411533469975      4.14
2013-Nov-10      182.5463260      -0.1426358      1.00167606076063      3.93
2013-Nov-11      184.7775521      -0.3239953      0.98027991058809      3.70
2013-Nov-12      187.1233447      -0.5125928      0.96004468644975      3.47
2013-Nov-13      189.5883625      -0.7079153      0.94109958951054      3.23
2013-Nov-14      192.1766051      -0.9091831      0.92358590352855      2.98
2013-Nov-15      194.8911825      -1.1152949      0.90765762973320      2.71
2013-Nov-16      197.7340777      -1.3247689      0.89348209691794      2.43
2013-Nov-17      200.7059220      -1.5356823      0.88124062346983      2.14
2013-Nov-18      203.8058171      -1.7456063      0.87112939995871      1.83
2013-Nov-19      207.0312528      -1.9515374      0.86336091660203      1.49
           Scorpio
2013-Nov-20      210.3781874      -2.1498129      0.85816652349455      1.13
2013-Nov-21      213.8413896      -2.3359908      0.85580116940851      0.73
2013-Nov-22      217.4151892      -2.5046426      0.85655220586542      0.28
2013-Nov-23      221.0948965      -2.6489495      0.86075582012588      -0.23
2013-Nov-24      224.8794150      -2.7598444      0.86882837870938      -0.84
2013-Nov-25      228.7763271      -2.8240285      0.88132934472635      -1.58
2013-Nov-26      232.8132048      -2.8187641      0.89910034514140      -2.56
2013-Nov-27      237.0693925      -2.6947332      0.92362979465388      -3.99
           Sagittarius
2013-Nov-28      241.8142585      -2.2849875      0.95836905763340      -6.70
2013-Nov-29      247.5623081      1.5378337      0.97825332408295      -11.64      
2013-Nov-30      246.5366111      5.0326667      0.91368865876979      -5.41
2013-Dec-01      245.6121076      7.2776687      0.86898756088017      -3.45
2013-Dec-02      244.8154646      9.2262267      0.83171711081452      -2.28
2013-Dec-03      244.1039359      11.0521600      0.79876877878260      -1.47
2013-Dec-04      243.4524817      12.8260766      0.76877566192694      -0.84
2013-Dec-05      242.8449189      14.5862416      0.74099411141965      -0.34
2013-Dec-06      242.2697221      16.3572757      0.71497138029447      0.07
2013-Dec-07      241.7179883      18.1570378      0.69041328150093      0.42
2013-Dec-08      241.1823383      19.9996796      0.66712168156952      0.72
2013-Dec-09      240.6562548      21.8971689      0.64496143535427      0.99
2013-Dec-10      240.1336355      23.8601025      0.62384142876849      1.22
           Scorpio
2013-Dec-11      239.6084539      25.8981451      0.60370304050349      1.43
2013-Dec-12      239.0744666      28.0202455      0.58451278319973      1.61
2013-Dec-13      238.5249256      30.2347045      0.56625741775447      1.78
2013-Dec-14      237.9522639      32.5491261      0.54894057446148      1.93
2013-Dec-15      237.3477192      34.9702698      0.53258029498169      2.07
2013-Dec-16      236.7008529      37.5038089      0.51720711393693      2.20
2013-Dec-17      235.9989069      40.1539979      0.50286241342906      2.33
2013-Dec-18      235.2259108      42.9232504      0.48959685099383      2.44
2013-Dec-19      234.3614050      45.8116326      0.47746870535258      2.55
2013-Dec-20      233.3785602      48.8162804      0.46654201974371      2.66
2013-Dec-21      232.2413292      51.9307491      0.45688445972250      2.76
2013-Dec-22      230.8999980      55.1442952      0.44856484778638      2.86
2013-Dec-23      229.2840111      58.4410606      0.44165039396515      2.97
2013-Dec-24      227.2899772      61.7990508      0.43620370788045      3.07
2013-Dec-25      224.7608523      65.1886143      0.43227974639919      3.17
2013-Dec-26      221.4484184      68.5697283      0.42992290936486      3.28
2013-Dec-27      216.9435953      71.8864681      0.42916452869048      3.40
2013-Dec-28      210.5472181      75.0549109      0.43002098994309      3.51
           Comet crosses ecliptic pole as seen from Earth
           within a few days, it flies over the Earth high
           above the ecliptic plane, at 0.42 AU distance.
           Observe column 3 = latitude!
2013-Dec-29      201.0582834      77.9362831      0.43249267462659      3.63
           Libra
2013-Dec-30      186.6454049      80.2835001      0.43656382161214      3.76
           Virgo
2013-Dec-31      165.9638509      81.6891352      0.44220329552805      3.89

 

part 3
           Leo
2014-Jan-01      142.0697195      81.7542211      0.44936614338642      4.02
2014-Jan-02      121.8611062      80.5564983      0.45799574163495      4.16
           Cancer
2014-Jan-03      107.9289036      78.5850127      0.46802629727974      4.30
2014-Jan-04      98.7813550      76.2578754      0.47938546807148      4.44
2014-Jan-05      92.6256344      73.8059461      0.49199689755435      4.58
           Gemini
2014-Jan-06      88.3078986      71.3452109      0.50578250860623      4.73
2014-Jan-07      85.1578549      68.9347393      0.52066445402192      4.88
2014-Jan-08      82.7825152      66.6052082      0.53656667674928      5.02
2014-Jan-09      80.9427613      64.3722480      0.55341607853601      5.17
2014-Jan-10      79.4869428      62.2429996      0.57114332909784      5.31
2014-Jan-11      78.3150657      60.2195752      0.58968336723521      5.46
2014-Jan-12      77.3588703      58.3010216      0.60897565260623      5.60
2014-Jan-13      76.5703215      56.4845014      0.62896422565216      5.74
2014-Jan-14      75.9147079      54.7660408      0.64959762701196      5.88
2014-Jan-15      75.3663569      53.1410160      0.67082871942117      6.02
2014-Jan-16      74.9058901      51.6044785      0.69261444640958      6.16
2014-Jan-17      74.5184148      50.1513727      0.71491555414729      6.29
2014-Jan-18      74.1923021      48.7766811      0.73769629601565      6.43
2014-Jan-19      73.9183416      47.4755211      0.76092413400078      6.56
2014-Jan-20      73.6891448      46.2432051      0.78456944669348      6.69
10-day steps
2014-Jan-21      73.4987168      45.0752776      0.80860525031486      6.81
2014-Jan-31      72.9566194      36.1363960      1.06591811244710      7.97
2014-Feb-10      73.7329751      30.4375046      1.34432254780747      8.94
2014-Feb-20      75.1338116      26.5401400      1.63507087429722      9.78
2014-Mar-02      76.8965498      23.7279139      1.93280382599979      10.50
2014-Mar-12      78.8959611      21.6212234      2.23320961149601      11.14
2014-Mar-22      81.0494467      20.0011773      2.53259394080659      11.71
2014-Apr-01      83.3077281      18.7308040      2.82786293173863      12.22
2014-Apr-11      85.6364638      17.7239720      3.11589813963814      12.68
2014-Apr-21      88.0040597      16.9217075      3.39397371549045      13.10
after that, flies off quickly and remains forever around the middle of ecliptic sign of Cancer, with latitude around 15°N

 

NASA Horizons:

 

Ephemeris Type [] :  OBSERVER Target Body [] :  Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) Observer Location [] :  Geocentric [500] Time Span [] :  Start=2012-09-29, Stop=2012-10-29, Step=1 d

Object Data Page

JPL/HORIZONS                  ISON (C/2012 S1)             2012-Sep-29 13:30:47
Rec #:903902 (+COV)   Soln.date: 2012-Sep-24_12:50:02     # obs: 54 (2011-2012)
 
FK5/J2000.0 helio. eclip. TWO-BODY elements (AU, DAYS, DEG, period=Julian yrs):
 
  EPOCH=  2456164.5 != 2012-Aug-25.0000000 (CT)   Residual RMS= .32024         
    EC= 1.000000000000218  QR= .01250446176504045 TP= 2456625.369621431        
    OM= 295.7451926842039  W= 345.50712732022     IN= 61.81287790235313        
    A= -57347341492.3674   MA= 360.               ADIST= 9.999999E99           
    PER= 9.999999E99       N= 0.                  ANGMOM= .002720376           
    DAN= .01271            DDN= .78592            L= 288.7840605               
    B= -12.7431718                                TP= 2013-Nov-28.8696214      
 
Physical & non-grav parameters (KM, SEC; A1,A2,A3=AU/d^2; DT=days):
    GM= n.a.               RAD= n.a.              A1= n.a.                     
    A2= n.a.               A3= n.a.               DT= n.a.                     
    M1= 5.2                M2= n.a.               k1= 11.                      
    k2= n.a.               PHCOF= n.a.                                         
 
COMET comments 
1: soln ref.= JPL#1, data arc: 2011-Dec-28 to 2012-Sep-23
2: k1=11.; TWO_BODY;

Results

*******************************************************************************
Ephemeris / WWW_USER Sat Sep 29 13:30:47 2012 Pasadena, USA      / Horizons    
*******************************************************************************
Target body name: ISON (C/2012 S1)                {source: JPL#1}
Center body name: Earth (399)                     {source: DE405}
Center-site name: GEOCENTRIC
*******************************************************************************
Start time      : A.D. 2012-Sep-29 00:00:00.0000 UT      
Stop  time      : A.D. 2012-Oct-29 00:00:00.0000 UT      
Step-size       : 1440 minutes
*******************************************************************************
Target pole/equ : No model available
Target radii    : (unavailable)                                                
Center geodetic : 0.00000000,0.00000000,0.0000000 {E-lon(deg),Lat(deg),Alt(km)}
Center cylindric: 0.00000000,0.00000000,0.0000000 {E-lon(deg),Dxy(km),Dz(km)}
Center pole/equ : High-precision EOP model        {East-longitude +}
Center radii    : 6378.1 x 6378.1 x 6356.8 km     {Equator, meridian, pole}    
Target primary  : Sun                             {source: DE405}
Interfering body: MOON (Req= 1737.400) km         {source: DE405}
Deflecting body : Sun, EARTH                      {source: DE405}
Deflecting GMs  : 1.3271E+11, 3.9860E+05 km^3/s^2                              
Small perturbers: Ceres, Pallas, Vesta            {source: SB405-CPV-2}
Small body GMs  : 6.32E+01, 1.43E+01, 1.78E+01 km^3/s^2                        
Atmos refraction: NO (AIRLESS)
RA format       : HMS
Time format     : CAL 
EOP file        : eop.120928.p121220                                           
EOP coverage    : DATA-BASED 1962-JAN-20 TO 2012-SEP-28. PREDICTS-> 2012-DEC-19
Units conversion: 1 AU= 149597870.691 km, c= 299792.458 km/s, 1 day= 86400.0 s 
Table cut-offs 1: Elevation (-90.0deg=NO ),Airmass (>38.000=NO), Daylight (NO )
Table cut-offs 2: Solar Elongation (  0.0,180.0=NO )                           
*******************************************************************************
Initial FK5/J2000.0 heliocentric ecliptic TWO-BODY elements (AU, DAYS, DEG):
  EPOCH=  2456164.5 != 2012-Aug-25.0000000 (CT)   Residual RMS= .32024         
    EC= 1.000000000000218  QR= .01250446176504045 TP= 2456625.369621431        
    OM= 295.7451926842039  W= 345.50712732022     IN= 61.81287790235313        
Comet physical & dynamic parameters (KM, SEC; A1,A2,A3=AU/d^2; DT=days):
    GM= n.a.               RAD= n.a.              A1= n.a.                     
    A2= n.a.               A3= n.a.               DT= n.a.                     
    M1= 5.2                M2= n.a.               k1= 11.                      
    k2= n.a.               PHCOF= n.a.                                         
**************************************************************************************************************
 Date__(UT)__HR:MN     R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC  T-mag  N-mag            delta      deldot    S-O-T /r    S-T-O
**************************************************************************************************************
$$SOE
 2012-Sep-29 00:00     08 15 36.39 +27 48 21.6  18.01   n.a. 6.54738630187053 -43.7764361  66.4433 /L   8.4938
 2012-Sep-30 00:00     08 15 56.25 +27 48 15.6  17.99   n.a. 6.52204565517108 -43.9702031  67.3437 /L   8.5625
 2012-Oct-01 00:00     08 16 15.64 +27 48 11.8  17.98   n.a. 6.49659476321563 -44.1581709  68.2465 /L   8.6295
 2012-Oct-02 00:00     08 16 34.56 +27 48 10.2  17.96   n.a. 6.47103699687788 -44.3402613  69.1518 /L   8.6946
 2012-Oct-03 00:00     08 16 53.00 +27 48 10.8  17.94   n.a. 6.44537577894814 -44.5163735  70.0596 /L   8.7580
 2012-Oct-04 00:00     08 17 10.94 +27 48 13.7  17.93   n.a. 6.41961459588283 -44.6863887  70.9700 /L   8.8194
 2012-Oct-05 00:00     08 17 28.38 +27 48 19.0  17.91   n.a. 6.39375700660627 -44.8501754  71.8830 /L   8.8789
 2012-Oct-06 00:00     08 17 45.31 +27 48 26.6  17.90   n.a. 6.36780664880795 -45.0075930  72.7986 /L   8.9364
 2012-Oct-07 00:00     08 18 01.72 +27 48 36.6  17.88   n.a. 6.34176724365574 -45.1584931  73.7169 /L   8.9920
 2012-Oct-08 00:00     08 18 17.59 +27 48 49.0  17.86   n.a. 6.31564260012482 -45.3027196  74.6380 /L   9.0455
 2012-Oct-09 00:00     08 18 32.92 +27 49 04.0  17.85   n.a. 6.28943662021693 -45.4401061  75.5618 /L   9.0969
 2012-Oct-10 00:00     08 18 47.70 +27 49 21.4  17.83   n.a. 6.26315330620163 -45.5704710  76.4884 /L   9.1463
 2012-Oct-11 00:00     08 19 01.90 +27 49 41.4  17.81   n.a. 6.23679677057622 -45.6936133  77.4178 /L   9.1934
 2012-Oct-12 00:00     08 19 15.54 +27 50 03.9  17.79   n.a. 6.21037124856161 -45.8093087  78.3501 /L   9.2384
 2012-Oct-13 00:00     08 19 28.58 +27 50 29.1  17.78   n.a. 6.18388111147673 -45.9173111  79.2853 /L   9.2811
 2012-Oct-14 00:00     08 19 41.03 +27 50 56.9  17.76   n.a. 6.15733087734207 -46.0173610  80.2234 /L   9.3216
 2012-Oct-15 00:00     08 19 52.87 +27 51 27.4  17.74   n.a. 6.13072521321946 -46.1092058  81.1644 /L   9.3597
 2012-Oct-16 00:00     08 20 04.08 +27 52 00.7  17.73   n.a. 6.10406892351308 -46.1926278  82.1084 /L   9.3954
 2012-Oct-17 00:00     08 20 14.66 +27 52 36.6  17.71   n.a. 6.07736692123494 -46.2674728  83.0553 /L   9.4288
 2012-Oct-18 00:00     08 20 24.60 +27 53 15.4  17.69   n.a. 6.05062418505858 -46.3336692  84.0052 /L   9.4597
 2012-Oct-19 00:00     08 20 33.89 +27 53 56.9  17.67   n.a. 6.02384571111908 -46.3912264  84.9581 /L   9.4881
 2012-Oct-20 00:00     08 20 42.52 +27 54 41.3  17.66   n.a. 5.99703647096857 -46.4402156  85.9139 /L   9.5140
 2012-Oct-21 00:00     08 20 50.47 +27 55 28.5  17.64   n.a. 5.97020138412902 -46.4807407  86.8728 /L   9.5374
 2012-Oct-22 00:00     08 20 57.74 +27 56 18.5  17.62   n.a. 5.94334530753988 -46.5129105  87.8347 /L   9.5581
 2012-Oct-23 00:00     08 21 04.32 +27 57 11.4  17.60   n.a. 5.91647303883876 -46.5368191  88.7996 /L   9.5763
 2012-Oct-24 00:00     08 21 10.19 +27 58 07.2  17.59   n.a. 5.88958932814086 -46.5525360  89.7676 /L   9.5918
 2012-Oct-25 00:00     08 21 15.36 +27 59 06.0  17.57   n.a. 5.86269889350126 -46.5601026  90.7387 /L   9.6046
 2012-Oct-26 00:00     08 21 19.80 +28 00 07.7  17.55   n.a. 5.83580643700435 -46.5595330  91.7130 /L   9.6147
 2012-Oct-27 00:00     08 21 23.51 +28 01 12.3  17.53   n.a. 5.80891666011595 -46.5508156  92.6905 /L   9.6220
 2012-Oct-28 00:00     08 21 26.48 +28 02 19.9  17.51   n.a. 5.78203427797599 -46.5339149  93.6711 /L   9.6265
 2012-Oct-29 00:00     08 21 28.69 +28 03 30.5  17.50   n.a. 5.75516403269176 -46.5087732  94.6551 /L   9.6282
$$EOE
**************************************************************************************************************
Column meaning:
 
 ** WARNING **
 
  The initial state available for this object was a Keplerian two-body
orbital element set, not osculating elements. This means the orbit is probably
very poorly determined.  Predictions for times many months or years from the
epoch may not be suitable for high-accuracy applications or expectations.
 
  Since the epoch is inside or within ~30 days of the relatively short data
arc, the elements (such as they are) were numerically propagated with
perturbations, just as if they were osculating elements.
 
TIME
 
  Prior to 1962, times are UT1. Dates thereafter are UTC. Any 'b' symbol in
the 1st-column denotes a B.C. date. First-column blank (" ") denotes an A.D.
date. Calendar dates prior to 1582-Oct-15 are in the Julian calendar system.
Later calendar dates are in the Gregorian system.
 
  The uniform Coordinate Time scale is used internally. Conversion between
CT and the selected non-uniform UT output scale has not been determined for
UTC times after the next July or January 1st.  The last known leap-second
is used over any future interval.
 
  NOTE: "n.a." in output means quantity "not available" at the print-time.
 
 R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC =
   J2000.0 astrometric right ascension and declination of target center.
Corrected for light-time. Units: HMS (HH MM SS.ff) and DMS (DD MM SS.f)
 
 T-mag N-mag =
   Comet's approximate apparent visual total magnitude ("T-mag") and nuclear
magnitude ("N-mag") by following definitions:
   T-mag =  M1 + 5*log10(delta) + k1*log10(r)
   N-mag =  M2 + 5*log10(delta) + k2*log10(r) + phcof*beta
Units: none
 
 delta  deldot =
   Range ("delta") and range-rate ("delta-dot") of target center with respect
to the observer at the instant light seen by the observer at print-time would
have left the target center (print-time minus down-leg light-time); the
distance traveled by a light ray emanating from the center of the target and
recorded by the observer at print-time. "deldot" is a projection of the
velocity vector along this ray, the light-time-corrected line-of-sight from the
coordinate center, and indicates relative motion. A positive "deldot" means the
target center is moving away from the observer (coordinate center). A negative
"deldot" means the target center is moving toward the observer.
Units: AU and KM/S
 
 S-O-T /r =
    Sun-Observer-Target angle; target's apparent solar elongation seen from
observer location at print-time. If negative, the target center is behind
the Sun. Angular units: DEGREES.
 
    The '/r' column is a Sun-relative code, output for observing sites
with defined rotation models only.
 
         /T indicates target trails Sun (evening sky)
         /L indicates target leads Sun  (morning sky)
 
    NOTE: The S-O-T solar elongation angle is the total separation in any
direction. It does not indicate the angle of Sun leading or trailing.
 
 S-T-O =
   Sun-Target-Observer (~ PHASE ANGLE) angle: the vertex angle at target center
formed by a vector to the apparent center of the Sun and a vector intersecting
the observer at print-time. This measurable angle is within 20 arcseconds
(0.006 deg) of the reduced PHASE ANGLE at observer's location at print time.
The difference is due to down-leg stellar aberration affecting measured target
position but not apparent solar illumination direction.  When computing phase,
Horizons uses the true phase angle, not S-T-O, but the resulting difference
in illuminated fraction is less than 0.001%.
   Units: DEGREES
 
 
 
 Computations by ...
     Solar System Dynamics Group, Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System
     4800 Oak Grove Drive, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
     Pasadena, CA  91109   USA
     Information: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/
     Connect    : telnet://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov:6775  (via browser)
                  telnet ssd.jpl.nasa.gov 6775    (via command-line)
     Author     : Jon.Giorgini@jpl.nasa.gov

 

 



 
   
 

 
   

 

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Copyright © 1999 - 2013 Michael Johnathan McDonald